The Changing Nature of Hazardous Weather and Implications for Transportation: Example from Oklahoma, USA

Central Oklahoma is undergoing investment in new intermodal transportation and rehabilitation of its infrastructure. Despite a highly variable historical climate, future changes resulting from anthropogenic climate change may be outside the range for which infrastructure was designed. We examined 21st century trends, focusing on weather extremes demonstrated importance to professionals as identified through expert input. assessed trends suite 15 global models (GCMs) using two emissions scenarios high-resolution statistically downscaled datasets. This ensemble provided quantitative potential conditions whilst revealing uncertainties associated with different downscaling methods. Our results support general consensus reduction frequency cold temperatures, freeze–thaw cycles, winter weather; however, latter, there not necessarily intensity. Extreme heat days (e.g., ≥100 °F) increased by factors 3–6, this upper high greenhouse gas emissions, while seasonal duration extreme extended 4–10 weeks. Projected return intervals heavy rainfall magnitude mid late century. Although contribution pathway these evident, value distributions varying simulations precipitation GCMs have large effect magnitudes, leading possible futures consider design. Precipitation metrics, particularly at extremes, were more sensitive selection data, compared temperature metrics. approach represents resource seeking identify changing risk probabilities regional local scales, precursor planning adaptation.